Packaged water to bump carbonates from top spot in 2015

Carbonates have traditionally led global soft drink consumption, but things are about to change. In 2015, for the first time, packaged water will overtake carbonates, according to new forecasts from Canadean.

Packaged water sales are expected to reach more than 233 billion litres in 2015, with carbonates growing at a slower pace to around 227 billion litres.

In comparison, 2010 figures put global consumption at only 170 billion litres of water, compared to 215 billion litres of carbonates.

“The speed at which packaged water is growing is evident. Asia and West Europe already have packaged water consumption levels above those of carbonates and this year East Europe is set to join them,” said Fiona Baillie, analyst at Canadean.

Emerging countries will drive this trend, Canadean’s research shows, while developed countries with traditionally high packaged water consumption will slip down the growth rankings.

Germany, Italy, France and Spain are forecast to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 1% from 2015 to 2020, compared to 21% in India, 12% in China and 8% in Brazil.

Bucking this trend, however, is the US, which is predicted to keep its second-place ranking in terms of volume due to consumers shifting to packaged water due to health concerns.

Top 10 global packaged water country ranking by volume, 2015 vs 2020. Source: Canadean.

Chain and India are predicted to account for around 50% of the world’s additional packaged water consumption in 2020, consuming a total of around 45 billion litres more than in 2015.

“With nearly one-third of the world’s population residing in these countries, the impact is significant,” said Baillie.

“Packaged water is often necessary in areas susceptible to flooding or other natural occurrences, as these often lead to water contamination and the spread of diseases.”

Poor piped water infrastructure and higher temperatures have driven packaged water consumption in Asia, with many consumers taking bottles of water with them ‘on the go’.

“India has seen a strong growth in 100 cL bottles in rural markets, as locals perceive them as having good value per serving and being easy to transport,” said Baillie.

The expansion of retail in Indian bus terminals and train stations has affected the way Indian people consume packaged water.

“It assimilates packaged water, namely 100 cL bottles, into the process of travelling and establishes it as the norm for all types of consumers.”

These figures and analysis are drawn from Canadean’s report, Global Beverage Forecasts, which was published in March 2015