2013 world cereal output to increase

The 2013 world cereal output is expected to increase significantly on 2012 figures, the latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) shows.

World cereal production will reach a new high of almost 2.5 billion tonnes, according to new FAO estimates, which include rice in milled terms. This figure is almost 8.4% more than 2012 and 6% above the 2011 record.

According to the FAO, these latest estimates mostly reflect adjustments of maize output in the United States, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which became firmer towards the completion of the harvests.

Based on the latest figures, the overall increase in world cereal output this year comprises a rise of 7.8% in wheat production, 12% for coarse grains and only 1% for rice.

Early prospects for the winter wheat crop, which has already been planted in the Northern Hemisphere and will be harvested in 2014, are mostly favourable.

In Western Africa, in several parts of the Sahel - especially in Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal - crops and pastures have been affected this year by a late onset and early cessation of rains, which the FAO predicts could lead to a new surge in food insecurity and malnutrition in the 2013/14 marketing year.

In southern Africa, prices of cereals are near or at record levels in several countries, underpinned by tighter supplies in the 2013/14 marketing year. Dry weather has delayed planting of the 2014 crop in some areas.

World cereal stocks are predicted to increase to 572 million tonnes by the close of the 2014 crop seasons, which is 13.4%, or nearly 68 million tonnes, more than in the previous year. This forecast is almost 9 million tonnes higher than reported in November, reflecting upward revisions to ending stocks of wheat and coarse grains, while ending rice inventories were reduced slightly.

The sharp expansion in world cereal stocks this season would result in the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio reaching 23.5%, well above the historical low of 18.4% registered in 2007/08, the FAO says.