Wheat yields to drop as global temperatures rise

What do climate change and your morning toast have in common? It looks like more of one will lead to less of the other: for every degree Celsius that the world’s temperature rises, the global wheat crop will decrease by 6%, according to a new study.

University of Florida’s Professor Senthold Asseng used a computer model approach to reach the finding of temperature increases and wheat production.

“The simulations with the multicrop models showed that warming is already slowing yield gains, despite observed yield increases in the past, at a majority of wheat-growing locations across the globe,” Professor Asseng said.

With wheat currently accounting for 20% of calories consumed globally and global food production needing to increase by 60% by 2050 to meet the demands of an estimated population of 9 billion, this could have serious consequences for our food supply.

In the past 100 years, global temperatures have risen by more than 0.6°C and are projected to increase by 2-4°C by the end of the century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Professor Asseng says new heat-tolerant wheat cultivars and crop management are needed to counteract the projected yield decline, and crop models will play a major role in developing new research strategies for this.

The study was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.